SUSTAINABILITY OF THE PENSION SYSTEM OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA

A. Anufrijev, G. Dašić
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Abstract

The pension system is a very important part of every national economy, not only economically, but also socially and financially. It is known that the first pension in Serbia was paid back in 1833. by Milos Obrenovic, so it would be rightly expected that today, after almost 190 years, that there is a stable public pension system that provides security for today’s and future retirees. It should be noted that in Serbia there is a fear among the population related to private pension funds, known in the literature as the third pillar of pension insurance. Fear is a product of insufficient financial literacy and awareness, on the one hand, but also of the decades-long term to which this insurance applies, on the other. The problem of the existing public pension system, which is referred to in the literature as „pay and go”, and is also known in practice under the pseudonym „flow boiler”, is its unsustainability. Back in the days when a contribution-based insurance system was being developed in Germany, Bismarck envisaged the limit to which the system could operate. This system is suitable for emerging economies and demographics for the benefit of the young population, that is, as long as the number of employees and retirees is 4:1. Difficulties arise when the ratio of employees to retirees is 3:1. The official ratio of employees and pensioners in Serbia is 1.2:1, indicating that a collapse is inevitable.
塞尔维亚共和国养恤金制度的可持续性
养老金制度是每个国家经济的重要组成部分,不仅是经济上的,而且是社会和金融上的。据悉,塞尔维亚的第一笔养老金是在1833年偿还的。因此,在近190年后的今天,有一个稳定的公共养老金体系为今天和未来的退休人员提供保障是理所当然的。应当指出,在塞尔维亚,人们对文献中称为养恤保险第三支柱的私人养恤基金有一种恐惧。恐惧一方面是金融知识和意识不足的产物,另一方面也是这种保险适用的几十年的产物。现有的公共养老金制度,在文献中被称为“即付即走”,在实践中也被称为“流动锅炉”,其问题在于其不可持续性。早在德国发展以缴费为基础的保险制度的时候,俾斯麦就设想了该制度可以运作的限度。这一制度适用于新兴经济体和人口结构,有利于年轻人口,即只要在职人员和退休人员的数量是4:1。当雇员与退休人员的比例达到3:1时,就会出现困难。塞尔维亚官方公布的雇员和养老金领取者的比例是1.2:1,这表明崩溃是不可避免的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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