The euro and the recent European crisis vis-à-vis the gold standard and the great depression: institutionalities, specificities and interfaces

G. C. Oliveira, P. Wolf
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

The paper aims to establish interfaces between the Great Depression of the 1930s under the Gold Standard and the recent European Crisis under the Euro. It is argued that, despite their specificities, both crises revealed the potentially harmful effects, in economic and social terms, of institutional arrangements that considerably reduce the autonomy of monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies of participating countries, without being accompanied by increased cooperation between them, which should be led by a global (in the case of the Great Depression) or regional (in the case of the European Crisis) hegemonic power, which is not only capable of, but is also willing to act as a buyer and lender of last resort, especially in circumstances characterized by increased uncertainty, the deterioration of the general state of expectations and increased liquidity preference. In fact, central European countries in the past and peripheral European countries nowadays were effectively pushed toward deflationary adjustments in which a reduction of prices and wages was accompanied by a reduction of output and employment levels. Thus, in the absence of the possibility of restoring the autonomy of economic policy, the overcome of the crisis necessarily requires, both before - under the Gold Standard - and nowadays - under the Euro -, joint actions aimed to assure that the responsibility for the adjustment will be equally distributed among all the economies, in order to avoid that some of them benefit at the expense of the others in this process.
欧元和最近的欧洲危机相对于-à-vis金本位制和大萧条:制度、特殊性和接口
这篇论文旨在建立20世纪30年代金本位下的大萧条和最近欧元下的欧洲危机之间的联系。有人认为,尽管有其特殊性,但这两次危机都揭示了制度安排在经济和社会方面的潜在有害影响,这些安排大大降低了参与国的货币、财政和汇率政策的自主权,而没有伴随着它们之间加强合作,这种合作应该由全球(在大萧条的情况下)或地区(在欧洲危机的情况下)霸权国家领导。它不仅有能力,而且愿意充当最后的买方和贷款人,特别是在不确定性增加、总体预期状况恶化和流动性偏好增加的情况下。事实上,过去的中欧国家和现在的欧洲外围国家都被有效地推向了通货紧缩调整,在这种调整中,价格和工资的下降伴随着产出和就业水平的下降。因此,在没有恢复经济政策自主权的可能性的情况下,克服危机必然需要在以前- -在金本位制度下- -和现在- -在欧元制度下- -采取联合行动,旨在确保调整的责任在所有经济体之间平均分配,以避免在这一进程中某些经济体受益而损害其他经济体的利益。
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