Rising Risks to Global Value Chains

Etel Solingen, Bo Meng
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

The expansion of global value chains (GVCs) has plateaued since the global financial crisis of 2008–2009 due to the slowdown in hyperglobalization (Chapter 1; Antràs 2020a; World Bank 2020)� Old and new risks to GVCs, as well as shocks, threaten the continued viability of these chains� The risks and shocks include extreme weather events, trade and technology wars, increased protectionism, geopolitical tensions, and COVID-19� IMF (2021a) defines risk as the effect of uncertainty on objectives—and by inducing uncertainty, shocks constitute an underlying source of risks, along with limited information and an imprecise understanding of the sources and mechanisms triggering shocks, which contributes to uncertainty� Given all this, the first three sections of this chapter are taken up by an overview of the sources, mechanisms, and effects of the three main types of meta-risks: geopolitical, environmental, and those stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic�1 While addressing primarily the implications of the three risks for GVCs, these sections also take note of reverse causal effects, where GVCs exacerbate those risks�2 The chapter then examines the relative resilience of GVCs to shocks depending on the nature and magnitude of the shock as well as on GVC features, industry and firm topographies, availability of substitutions, degree of transactional stickiness, and type of shock (geopolitical, environmental, COVID-19)� The subsequent section examines mutual interactions across all three risks and their compounded
全球价值链风险上升
自2008-2009年全球金融危机以来,由于超级全球化的放缓,全球价值链(GVCs)的扩张已经趋于平稳(第1章;2020室;全球价值链面临的新旧风险和冲击威胁着这些链条的持续生存能力。风险和冲击包括极端天气事件、贸易和技术战、保护主义加剧、地缘政治紧张局势和2019冠状病毒病疫情。国际货币基金组织(2021a)将风险定义为不确定性对目标的影响,并通过引入不确定性,冲击构成风险的潜在来源。以及有限的信息和对触发冲击的来源和机制的不精确理解,这导致了不确定性。鉴于此,本章的前三个部分将概述三种主要类型的元风险的来源、机制和影响:在主要讨论这三种风险对全球价值链的影响的同时,这些章节还注意到反向因果效应,在这些因果效应中,全球价值链加剧了这些风险。然后,本章根据冲击的性质和程度,以及全球价值链的特征、行业和公司地形、替代品的可用性、交易粘性程度、风险评估和风险评估,研究了全球价值链对冲击的相对弹性。冲击类型(地缘政治、环境、2019冠状病毒病)——下一节将探讨这三种风险之间的相互作用及其复合风险
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