Thermal Power Plant Steam Turbine Output Operational Characteristics Change Probabilistic Model Driven by the Second Derivation Control Actions

Abstract

The subject of the research is thermal station power equipment, in particular steam turbines and steam turbine plant support equipment. In the modern context, when working lifespan of the power equipment outreached the limit, thus the goal is to assure it performance and availability for producing enough energy and heat. To reach the goal it’s necessary to design and implement the probabilistic models and techniques for power equipment reliability under present day conditions. The probabilistic second derivative output parameters change model of power equipment is first developed by the authors and is the scientific novelty of the research. In the paper the assumptions and suppostitions on which the model is based are described. The practical implication of the model consists of capability of rational maintenance and repair operation term estimation of thermal power plant steam turbines. The model is based on the mathematical statistics methods, probability theory and matrix calculus. The probabilistic model allows forecasting the output characteristics change in time and control actions explicitly. The example of output characteristics change for long term utilization is given. During the research the statistical power equipment elements failure and error material has been acquired and presented in relative failure and error share diagram. The internal and external technical and operational factors influencing the failure statistics are determined. For quantitive reliability estimation of power equipment the set of primary indices, influencing turbine performance and reliability, is presented.