Prediction of the degradation process of mono-Si photovoltaic panels in Ukrainian and Czech conditions

Abstract

This paper focuses on project studying the influence of various technical, meteorological, and specific local factors influencing power generation from photovoltaic plant. This problem is analysed on model PV plants installed in Ukraine and Czech Republic.The Fault tree analysis (FTA) method is applied on photovoltaic power plant damage tree. The most significant technical problems of PV modules and entire photovoltaic plants are identified and discussed. Also mathematical method computing coefficient of the total residual resource of the plant and to calculate predicted energy generation of the plant taking into account general degradation is discussed. Indicator coefficients describing abnormal PV modules operation are described. Structural diagram of the model of the coefficient of the residual resource of the PV module was developedBasic data originate from measurements on monocrystalline Si PV panels installed in commercial plants commissioned in Ukraine and the Czech Republic. Data show important differences in behavior and operational conditions. It is evident that prediction the of technical condition of the plant, degradation of PV modules and actual electricity generation strongly depends on local conditions. Ignoring the gradual reduction of capacity leads to ertrors in assessment of the total energy efficiency, profitability, payback time and necessary power reserve to compensate the unstable RES generation.