Permintaan Kopi Indonesia

Cia Cai Cen, Erwin Nuryana Faisal
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Abstract

Coffee plantations in Indonesia are one of the main commodities from the agricultural sub-sector which are the most in demand after wood and rubber. Coffee commodity is considered attractive apart from its high demand, for many developing countries this commodity is also an influential source of income for non-oil and gas countries. In addition, coffee plantations also create jobs and a source of income for coffee farming communities (AEKI, 2013). On a global scale, Indonesia is ranked the fourth largest in the world after Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia. Therefore, Indonesia has the largest coffee export market that is in demand by the United States (USA), which reached a total export from 2000 to 2018 of 1,159,877 tons or reached a share of 15.43% with a total export value of USD 3.42 billion. And followed by Japan with a market share reaching 12.65% which is equivalent to 951,022 tons or reaching a total export value of USD 1.75 billion. This study examines the factors of Indonesian coffee demand for the two main export destination countries which are explained through the object of the research variable. The object of research that will be tested is the demand for Indonesian coffee in the United States market (Y1), demand for Indonesian coffee in the Japanese market (Y2), United States GDP (X1), Japan's GDP (X2), the exchange rate of the rupiah against the United States dollar (X3 ), Rupiah exchange rate against Yen ( X4 ), Domestic Arabica coffee price ( X5 ), Domestic Robusta coffee price ( X6 ), Colombian coffee price ( X7 ). Testing and data processing approced out through the ECM approach with time series data from the period 2000-2018.
印度尼西亚的咖啡种植园是继木材和橡胶之后需求量最大的农业分部门的主要商品之一。咖啡商品除了需求量大之外,被认为具有吸引力,对许多发展中国家来说,这种商品也是非石油和天然气国家的重要收入来源。此外,咖啡种植园还为咖啡种植社区创造就业机会和收入来源(AEKI, 2013)。在全球范围内,印尼是继巴西、越南和哥伦比亚之后的第四大经济体。因此,印度尼西亚拥有美国需求的最大咖啡出口市场,从2000年到2018年,美国的总出口量为1,159,877吨,占15.43%,出口总额为34.2亿美元。其次是日本,市场份额为12.65%,相当于951,022吨,出口总额为17.5亿美元。本研究考察了印度尼西亚咖啡对两个主要出口目的地国家的需求因素,这些因素通过研究变量的对象来解释。将要测试的研究对象是美国市场对印尼咖啡的需求(Y1),日本市场对印尼咖啡的需求(Y2),美国GDP (X1),日本GDP (X2),印尼盾对美元汇率(X3),印尼盾对日元汇率(X4),国内阿拉比卡咖啡价格(X5),国内罗布斯塔咖啡价格(X6),哥伦比亚咖啡价格(X7)。通过ECM方法对2000-2018年的时间序列数据进行了测试和数据处理。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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