Population Projection Using The Implementation of Differential Equation of Logistic Models

Abstract

Projections of population have long been an important problem in the world. Population size and growth in a country directly influence the situation of the economy, policy, culture, education and costs of natural resources. This study aims to determine the projected population growth in the East Java local city in Indonesia, named Ponorogo, using logistic growth model based on the growth rate and carrying capacity. The research method used in the first stage is to determine the research subject. The second stage is (a) collecting research data (b) data analysis and finally drawing conclusions. This research is a new way of determining population projections based on growth rate and carrying capacity so that population projection data can be obtained in 2030. The results of the study show that IV logistics model is more appropriate for predicting the population in Ponorogo Regency for 2030, which is 889.956 people with a capacity of 912.355,44 people. The results of this study can be useful as policy makers for the Central Statistics Agency, Civil Registry Service in projecting the number of residents in the future as well.