An integrated fuzzy-DEMATEL approach to project risk analysis

Abstract

The occurrence of one risk may exacerbate other risks due to existing interactions. The traditional risk analysis approaches do not take account of the complex structure of risks arising from their interactions and the severity of risks may not be assessed correctly. This paper presents an integrated fuzzy-DEMATEL approach to assess the severity of risks considering their existing interactions using the opinions of an invented group of experts. The interactions between risks are modeled qualitatively using cause and effect feedback loops. The impacts of the risks on each other are then assessed using DEMATEL technique. Taking account of the difficulties of traditional aggregation method namely simple averaging, a new aggregation method is proposed using fuzzy logic. The proposed fuzzy-DEMATEL approach is implemented in a real-world oil development project in order to evaluate its applicability and performance. The impacts of the most important identified risks on each other are assessed and the severity of risks is determined using proposed fuzzy-DEMATEL approach.