Climate Variation Assessment Based on Rainfall and Temperature in Ilorin Kwara State Nigeria

Abstract

In recent times and across the globe, the concept of climate has gained much relevance because of its dynamic and complex nature and the significant influence it has on various aspects of the environment, including the increasing threat of global climate change. This study focuses on the assessment of climatic variation in Ilorin based on the variations in rainfall and temperature within the period 1980-2015. Time Series Analysis was used to determine the trend of rainfall and temperature within the period 1980-2015. The 5-Year Moving Average was used to smoothen the time series and to eliminate unwanted fluctuations. Linear Regression was used to estimate the value of variable Y (total rainfall or average minimum temperature), corresponding to a given value of variable X (time), while MAKESEN software was used to determine the temporal trend of rainfall indices within the study period. Furthermore, the study focused on the spatial variations of total rainfall and average minimum temperature in the study area. The result revealed that there is downward trend of 0.814 mm per year in the annual mean rainfall and also there is an upward trend of 0.029 per year in average annual minimum temperature and total annual maximum temperature has an upward trend of 0.01 mm per year. Thus, the rainfall is decreasing and temperature tends to increase. Key word: Climate variability, Rainfall, Temperature, Period, Temporal trend, Kwara state