Black swans, dragon kings and the uncertainty in international nuclear law

Abstract

Black swans and dragon kings both represent metaphors for extremely large adverse events with tremendous impact on society and industry. However, while dragon kings refer to those harmful events, which are predictable to some degree, black swans are a surprise because the consequence of them far exceeds what anyone had previously estimated, even using sophisticated risk analysis of low probability events. Nuclear accidents in Chernobyl and Fukushima represent salient examples of black swans. This article aims to address how international nuclear law copes with dragon kings and how black swans may impact existing legal framework on peaceful uses of nuclear energy worldwide.