Democratic Progress and Regress: The Effect of Parties on the Transitions of States to and Away from Democracy

Abstract

This article examines how political parties and party competition affect the likelihood of nations becoming and remaining democracies. While many scholars have long assumed that this is the case, the roles of parties and party competition are indeed affected, such a likelihood has rarely been examined rigorously in cross-national evaluations. In addition to examining the links between parties and political transitions, our analysis controls for other factors purported to have a significant effect on democratization. To test the effects of parties and party competition on the transition to and survival of democracies and autocracies, this article utilizes event history analysis on all countries in political transition between the years of 1950-1992, using three different measures of democracy. Through this multifaceted and unique approach, we are able to demonstrate that across all three measures of democracy, parties do indeed play an important role in causing authoritarian states to transition to democracy and helping democratic nations remain democracies.