Indian Hybrid Warfare since 2008: Impacts on Pakistan Security

Nouman Ahmad, Abdul Haseeb, A. Asma’
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Abstract

The study aims to highlight the Indian Hybrid Warfare, post 2008 Mumbai attack and its likely impact on Pakistan Security. The study succeeds in the Exploratory, Descriptive, and Predictive data analysis approaches. Both primary and secondary data was used to elaborate different aspects of the entire study. This study conducted Structured Interviews of Pakistani, Indian and Western retired military officers, diplomats, academicians with expertise in strategic studies. Hybrid warfare is not a new thing but it comes from centuries like a strategy and comes out with different perspectives. We know that India Pakistan is involve in this hybrid strategy from centuries against one another. Since 1947 tell now we can do Covert operations against one another. So, it is not a new concept in our context but in 2008 when Mumbai attack happened against India. So, from post 2008 the change which occurred in Indian hybrid strategy was phenomenal because before this such changes never happened which Impact on Pakistan Security However, the risk of limited war under the nuclear umbrella cannot be ruled out. Pakistan needs to improve its conventional deterrence to make it costly any misadventure by India. The prospects of direct military confrontation between India and Pakistan would decrease with an effective conventional answer by Pakistan. The study argues that, the hybrid warfare strategy has been more successful as compared to direct military engagement. Therefore, it is expected that this trend would continue unless Pakistan overcomes its political, socio-economic and ethno-religious vulnerabilities. The study determines that India and Pakistan cannot win against each other in any direct or indirect military confrontation, however it is advisable that both states must overcome their differences, resolve outstanding issues through consistent dialogue process in an amicable way for long term peace and stability in South Asia.
2008年以来的印度混合战争:对巴基斯坦安全的影响
这项研究旨在强调印度混合战争,2008年孟买袭击事件及其对巴基斯坦安全的可能影响。该研究在探索性、描述性和预测性数据分析方法上取得了成功。主要和次要数据被用来阐述整个研究的不同方面。本研究对巴基斯坦、印度和西方退休军官、外交官、具有战略研究专长的学者进行了结构化访谈。混合战争不是一个新事物,但它像一种战略一样存在了几个世纪,并且从不同的角度出发。我们知道,几个世纪以来,印度和巴基斯坦一直参与这种相互对抗的混合战略。从1947年开始我们就可以秘密行动了。所以,在我们的背景下,这不是一个新概念,而是在2008年孟买袭击事件发生时。因此,从2008年后开始,印度混合战略发生的变化是惊人的,因为在此之前,这种变化从未发生过,这对巴基斯坦的安全产生了影响。然而,不能排除核保护伞下有限战争的风险。巴基斯坦需要提高其常规威慑能力,让印度的任何冒险都付出代价。印度和巴基斯坦之间直接军事对抗的前景将随着巴基斯坦的有效常规回应而减少。该研究认为,与直接军事接触相比,混合战争战略更为成功。因此,除非巴基斯坦克服其政治、社会经济和种族-宗教脆弱性,否则预计这一趋势将继续下去。该研究确定,印度和巴基斯坦不可能在任何直接或间接的军事对抗中战胜对方,但明智的做法是,两国必须克服分歧,通过持续的对话进程,以友好的方式解决悬而未决的问题,以实现南亚的长期和平与稳定。
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