A Multilayer Framework to Assess Influenza Intervention Policies

Chung-Yuan Huang, Yu-Shiuan Tsai, T. Wen
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Abstract

The authors describe an innovative simulation framework that combines daily commuting network data with a commonly used population-based transmission model to assess the impacts of various interventions on epidemic dynamics in Taiwan. Called the Multilayer Epidemic Dynamics Simulator (MEDSim), our proposed framework has four contact structures: within age group, between age groups, daily commute, and nationwide interaction. Our results indicate that lower transmission rates and earlier intervention activation times did not reduce total numbers of infected cases, but did delay peak times. When transmission rate was decreased by a minimum of 70%, significant epidemic peak delays were observed when interventions were activated before new case number 50; no significant effects were noted when the transmission rate was decreased by less than 30%. Observed peaks occurred more quickly when initial outbreaks took place in urban rather than rural areas. According to our results, MEDSim provides insights that reflect the dynamic processes of epidemics under different intervention scenarios, thus clarifying the effects of complex contact structures on disease transmission dynamics.
评估流感干预政策的多层框架
作者描述了一个创新的模拟框架,将日常通勤网络数据与常用的基于人口的传播模型相结合,以评估各种干预措施对台湾流行病动态的影响。被称为多层流行病动力学模拟器(MEDSim),我们提出的框架有四个接触结构:年龄组内、年龄组之间、日常通勤和全国互动。我们的研究结果表明,较低的传播率和较早的干预激活时间并没有减少感染病例总数,但确实延迟了高峰时间。当传播率至少降低70%时,在新病例数达到50例之前启动干预措施时,观察到明显的流行高峰延迟;当传播率降低不到30%时,没有发现明显的影响。当最初的疫情发生在城市而不是农村地区时,观察到的高峰出现得更快。根据我们的研究结果,MEDSim提供了反映不同干预情景下流行病动态过程的见解,从而阐明了复杂接触结构对疾病传播动力学的影响。
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