Early effects of the Covid-19 on the Agricultural field: Evidence from two major commodities

Abstract

: The Covid-19 pandemic has changed the dynamics of the overall economy, impacting many fields. Such a case is the agricultural sector, which was impacted in a significant manner. In this paper, we examine two most important commodities from the agricultural sector, namely the Oats and the Wheat, during the Covid-19 spread and the lockdown measures. Using relevant time series specifications, we establish a hypothesis regarding the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on the values of these two commodities. Based on our findings, the values of the commodities were affected by the Covid-19 spread and moreover, the Covid-19 spread provides useful information for the predicting and forecasting of these values. Our findings are robust, since the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of the alternative model employed, that explicitly incorporate the pandemic induced by the SARS-COV-2 virus, is superior to the baseline model.