Analysis of Urban Environment Sustainability in Kurdish Cities of Iran Using the Future Study Approach (Case Study: Saqqez City)

Abstract

The present study attempts to analysis the spatial transformations in the urban environment scale by utilizing the natural step foresight approach in the context of urban environment indicators. To obtain this goal, the methods applied herein included descriptive-analytical studies, document and questionnaire in the frame of Delphi model and software analyzes. Initial discussions were held with 50 academic elites and executives in Saqqez city as the statistical population, followed by the identification of 78 variables in the frame of 16 general classifications. The results showed that the obtained fill rate was equal to 95.79% with two data iterations, which represented the highest level of variables influencing each other. According to the findings, the integrated urban environmental management index (ME4) with 188 scores had uppermost direct impact on other variables. Moreover, the index of development and promotion of urban recycling regulations with 5,585,944 calculated raw values presented the most indirect impact on other variables. Finally, the use of SMIC resulted in favorable, intermediate and catastrophic scenarios by considering the identified key driving forces.