Can a fighter develop glass jaw? Statistical evidence from mixed martial arts

Vojtěch Kotrba
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Abstract

This paper deals with a phenomenon in combat sports called the glass jaw or glass chin. It is the ability of a fighter to withstand punches to the jaw area without falling unconscious and thus receiving a knockout. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the possibility of developing a glass jaw over the course of a fighter's career, and whether certain fighters are more predisposed to experiencing knockouts. Utilizing data from the largest Mixed Martial Arts organization, the Ultimate Fighting Championship, spanning from 2010 to 2021, statistical models reveal that certain fighters may be more susceptible to knockouts compared to others. Conversely, it could not be shown that the probability of a future knockout loss, that is developing a glass jaw, increased with the number of knockouts received. However, there remains space for a more detailed investigation of this phenomenon. The historically debated resistance training of punches to the head area cannot be recommended. Conversely, it is advisable to observe the fighters' reactions to punches to the head in order to pick out those with a greater predisposition for a knockout. They should then be especially cautious when practicing combat sports.
拳击手会有玻璃下巴吗?综合格斗的统计证据
本文研究了格斗运动中的一种现象,即玻璃下巴。它指的是一名拳手能够承受下巴部位的击打而不失去知觉,从而被击倒的能力。本文的主要目的是研究在拳击手的职业生涯中形成玻璃下巴的可能性,以及某些拳击手是否更容易被击倒。利用最大的综合格斗组织——终极格斗冠军赛(Ultimate Fighting Championship) 2010年至2021年的数据,统计模型显示,某些选手可能比其他人更容易被击倒。相反,不能证明未来敲除失败(即形成玻璃颚)的概率随着敲除次数的增加而增加。然而,对这一现象进行更详细的调查仍有空间。历史上有争议的对头部区域的拳击抵抗训练是不推荐的。相反,观察拳手对头部击打的反应是明智的,这样可以挑选出那些更容易被击倒的拳手。他们在练习格斗运动时应该特别小心。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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