Empirical Rainfall Thresholds for Landslide Occurrence in Serra do Mar, Angra dos Reis, Brazil

D. Germain, Sébastien Roy, Antonio Jose Teixera Guerra
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

In the tropical environment such as Brazil, the frequency of rainfall-induced landslides is particularly high because of the rugged terrain, heavy rainfall, increasing urbanization, and the orographic effect of mountain ranges. Since such landslides repeatedly interfere with human activities and infrastructures, improved knowledge related to spatial and temporal prediction of the phenomenon is of interest for risk management. This study is an analysis of empirical rainfall thresholds, which aims to establish local and regional scale correlations between rainfall and the triggering of landslides in Angra dos Reis in the State of Rio de Janeiro. A statistical analysis combining quantile regression and binary logistic regression was performed on 1640 and 526 landslides triggered by daily rainfall over a 6-year period in the municipality and the urban center of Angra dos Reis, in order to establish probabilistic rainfall duration thresholds and assess the role of antecedent rainfall. The results show that the frequency of landslides is highly correlated with rainfall events, and surprisingly the thresholds in dry season are lower than those in wet season. The aspect of the slopes also seems to play an important role as demonstrated by the different thresholds between the southern and northern regions. Finally, the results presented in this study provide new insight into the spatial and temporal dynamics of landslides and rainfall conditions leading to their activation in this tropical and mountainous environment.
巴西安格拉多斯赖斯山区滑坡发生的经验降雨阈值
在巴西这样的热带环境中,由于地形崎岖、雨量充沛、城市化进程加快以及山脉的地形影响,降雨引起的山体滑坡发生的频率特别高。由于这种滑坡反复干扰人类活动和基础设施,因此提高与该现象的时空预测有关的知识对风险管理很有意义。本研究是对经验降雨阈值的分析,旨在建立里约州安格拉多斯赖斯降雨与触发山体滑坡之间的局部和区域尺度的相关性。采用分位数回归和二元logistic回归相结合的方法,对安格拉多斯里斯市和市中心6年日降雨诱发的1640次和526次滑坡进行了统计分析,建立了降雨持续时间的概率阈值,并评估了前雨的作用。结果表明:滑坡发生频率与降雨事件高度相关,旱季的阈值低于雨季。从南部和北部地区之间不同的阈值可以看出,斜坡的方向似乎也起着重要作用。最后,本研究的结果为在热带和山地环境中导致山体滑坡的时空动态和降雨条件提供了新的见解。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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