Multi-user Load Elasticity Assessment Method Considering Load Statistical Characteristics

Abstract

The premise of DR is Load elasticity assessment, that is, DR potential assessment. Neglecting actual load characteristic constraints, an evaluation model based on electricity price and incentive policies has been proposed. Consequently, there is a large deviation between the theoretical evaluation results and the actual DR potential. Moreover, when DR is applied to utilities, the DR behavior randomness is ignored, result in a scheme without the best reliability. In this paper, the Multinomial Logistic Model is utilized to represent the power consumption probability in a certain period, which taking the DR behavior randomness into account. Based on electricity demand-price elasticity, a unified electricity demand response model is proposed. Then, according to the power consumption statistical data in different sectors, the statistical models of industrial, commercial and residential loads are established respectively. Finally, the sector load elasticity assessment model and the multi-user load elasticity assessment model are derived from the unified model and the statistical model above. By applying to the load elasticity assessment of a city in China, the validity and practicability of the proposed method are verified.