Cognitive biases in humanitarian sensemaking and decision-making lessons from field research

Abstract

Time and again, humanitarian decision-makers are confronted with stress and pressure, distorted, lacking and uncertain information, and thus they are working in conditions that are known to introduce or enforce biases. Decision analysis has been designed to overcome such biases, and a network of “digital responders” organized over the Internet has set out to improve judgments by providing better information. However, without any structured support to determine objectives, goals and preferences and detached from the context of operational decision-makers, remote analysts may face the very biases they are trying to help overcome. This article sets out to identify biases that matter for humanitarian decision support, reflecting on the role of field-based decision-makers and digital responders. The most important biases are reviewed to provide an assessment on their role in the course of a disaster response. To this end, a literature review is combined with results from fieldwork in three humanitarian disasters. I identify areas that are particularly sensitive to reinforced biases, and others, where digital volunteers can likely help, and conclude the paper with an agenda for future research.