The Personal and the Political in Repeat Congressional Candidacies

Abstract

Analyses of the decision to run for the U.S. House are generally based on the self-reported motivations of a sample of candidates or potential candidates. In this article we take a different approach. We use a quasi-experimental design to model the decision of a losing candidate to initiate or reject an immediate repeat match-up against the person to whom they lost in the general election of the previous cycle. Of these potential repeaters we look at “strong” challengers—those who lost but secured more than 40 percent of the vote. We find the decision to repeat to be shaped at least somewhat by evaluations of the candidate’s chances of winning the party’s nomination and her personal desires and abilities. However, when we examine only “strategic” potential repeaters—those who lost in an open seat contest the first time around—we find the decision to repeat to be driven largely by broader political or partisan trends that affect the candidate’s evaluation of her chances of winning the general election. This finding confirms analyses of strategic candidates using other data.