Research on Pre-release Prediction Model of Chinese High Quality Films

Abstract

By analyzing the big data of Chinese-language films, we can predict high-quality films that are both “good and popular” before they are released. Firstly, collect data of 1876 Chinese-language films released in 2009-2017, and then select indicators that affect box office and score from four aspects: film people, plot, release time and synthesize, propose a prerelease prediction model. Finally, the model is trained by using 6 methods such as Random Forest to predict the “high quality or not” of the films. The results show that the best prediction performance comes from Random Forest, with an accuracy rate of 78.29% and an AUC value of 0.831. The model can provide decision-making reference for investors to invest in high quality films and bring more high quality films to the market.