On future changes in the long-term seasonal discharges in selected basins of Slovakia

Abstract

Climate change and its impact on hydrological characteristics is a research topic of increasing interest. Studies that examine historical, current or future changes in hydrological regimes are important for understanding future changes in the water balance and its components. This study analyses changes in long-term discharges in the summer and winter half-year and the baseflow index for eight selected river basins in Slovakia till 2100. For the analysis, data observed from the period 1981–2010 were used to calibrate the HBV-type rainfall-runoff TUW model. To simulate future discharges up to the 2100 horizon, two climate scenarios were used, i.e., the Dutch KNMI and the German MPI. The analysis was performed for four selected periods with a duration of 30 years. The results point to the most significant changes in the increase in long-term seasonal discharges in the winter half-year by 2100. In the future, the summer period will probably be characterised by a reduction in long-term seasonal discharges and decrease in the base flow index in all of the basins analysed.