STOCK MARKET DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

Abstract

This study investigated the causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth for Greece for the period 1978-2007 using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Questions were raised whether stock market development causes economic growth taking into account the negative effect of interest rate on stock market development. The purpose of this study was to investigate the short-run and the long-run relationship between the examined variables applying the Johansen co-integration analysis. To achieve this objective unit root tests were carried out for all time series data in their levels and their first differences. Johansen co-integration analysis was applied to examine whether the variables are co-integrated of the same order taking into account the maximum eigenvalues and trace statistics tests. Finally, a vector error correction model was selected to investigate the long-run relationship between stock market development and economic growth. A short-run increase of economic growth per 1% induced an increase of stock market index 0.41% in Greece, while an increase of interest rate per 1% induced a relative decrease of stock market index per 1.42% in Greece. The estimated coefficient of error correction term was statistically significant and had a negative sign, which confirmed that there was not any problem in the long-run equilibrium between the examined variables. The results of Granger causality tests indicated that there is a unidirectional causality between stock market development and economic growth with direction from economic growth to stock market development and a unidirectional causal relationship between economic growth and interest rate with direction from economic growth to interest rate. Therefore, it can be inferred that economic growth has a direct positive effect on stock market development while interest rate has a negative effect on stock market development and economic growth respectively.