Linear Regression and ARIMA Models for Electricity Demand Forecasting in West Africa

Abstract

This article focuses on the predictive study of electricity demand in West African countries based on the multivariate linear regression model and the ARIMA model. The objective of the study is first to establish for each country a linear regression model and ARIMA model, then to compare the two (2) models based on the MAD, RMSE and MAPE coefficients, and finally to deduce of this comparison the best valid model to establish the electricity demand prediction of the country. We have come to the conclusion that the ARIMA model is more adequate for predicting the electricity demand of most of West African countries with the exception of Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia and Nigeria where the multivariate linear regression model performs better.