EU-ERWEITERUNG IN KRISENZEITEN? ZUR BEITRITTSREIFE DER BEITRITTSKANDIDATEN VOM WESTBALKAN (EU Enlargement in Times of Crisis? Readiness for Accession of the Western Balkan Candidate Countries)

Abstract

German Abstract: Zusammenfassung In diesem Papier wird analysiert, inwieweit die Staaten des Westbalkans die notwendige wirtschaftliche und institutionelle Reife für einen EU-Beitritt erreicht haben. In der Studie werden die vier Staaten untersucht, die bereits Kandidatenstatus haben: Albanien, Montenegro, Nord-Mazedonien und Serbien. Die Autoren beschreiben, wie die EU derzeit den Stand des Beitrittsprozesses bewertet. Sie analysieren, welchen wirtschaftlichen Entwicklungsstand die Westbalkanstaaten bisher erreicht haben und welche möglichen Entwicklungspfade für einen Aufholprozess möglich erscheinen. Darüber hinaus bewerten sie die institutionellen Rahmenbedingungen in diesen Ländern auf der Grundlage internationaler Standortrankings, die unabhängige Informationen über den institutionellen Aufholprozess der Länder enthalten. Die Autoren berechnen zudem die Kosten, die der EU entstehen, wenn diese Kandidatenländer Zugang zu den bestehenden Struktur- und Investitionsfonds der EU erhalten.

English Abstract: The topicality of the paper’s subject “EU accession of the Western Balkan Countries” results from the fact that despite the unresolved crises in the EU, in autumn 2019 the EU member states will decide whether to open accession negotiations with the Western Balkan states of North Macedonia and Albania. Due to doubts concerning the readiness of accession of these countries, the discussion on an alternative option for EU integration between full membership and non-membership for countries that are only partially ready for accession is reviving. The focus here is particularly on economic integration. The corresponding objective of the paper is to clarify whether from an economic point of view doubts about the accession readiness of northern Macedonia and Albania, as well as of the other Western Balkan accession candidates Montenegro and Serbia, are justified. The research tasks in this contribution are reflected in the following modules: drawing conclusions from evaluations by the EU, a statistical analysis of the economic development in the candidate countries, the simulation of convergence processes for each Western Balkan state, the evaluation of international country rankings and finally the execution of a cost analysis of the EU accession of the Western Balkan states. Problematic enlargement plans of the European Union.

In the European Union (EU), which has grown to 28 member states, centrifugal forces are becoming increasingly visible: the efforts of the United Kingdom to withdraw from the EU, the smouldering economic crisis in Southern Europe, the strong differences in refugee and immigration policy, the North-South conflict over the future of the Stability and Growth Pact or the controversial question of further deepening EU integration point to fundamental differences within the EU. In view of a large number of unresolved problems in the current EU, it would be reasonable that the further enlargement of the Community will not be on the European policy agenda. Especially the enlargements during the last 15 years have made the political consensus building in the EU increasingly difficult and can explain the drifting apart of the member states in many policy fields. But a new enlargement of the EU is still planned.

Following their strategy of an Eastern enlargement, in 2004 the EU accepted the majority of Central and Eastern European reform states as full members. The accession of Bulgaria and Romania (2007) as well as Croatia (2013) completed this enlargement process by countries in the Balkans that had been comparatively economically weak or politically unstable until then. From the EU's point of view, however, enlargement is not yet completed — despite all the integration problems that have come to light.

In the “Thessaloniki Declaration” in June 2003, the Western Balkan states of Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia (Northern Macedonia since 2019), Serbia and Montenegro and, with restrictions, Kosovo were also given the prospect of accession. This was reaffirmed in the “Sofia Declaration” in May 2018.

This enlargement project seems to focus less on the enlargement of the EU internal market, which is not surprising given the small size and limited economic potential of these candidate countries. Rather, it is a project for the political stabilization of the Western Balkans, as can be seen from the highlighted objectives: strengthening democracy and the rule of law, fighting crime and corruption, and pacifying regional conflicts. The establishment of functioning market economies is seen as a vehicle to achieve these goals and also to curb migration from these states to the EU. Therefore, the creation of a perspective for young people to stay in the EU plays a special role.