The Biggest Risks in Hydrocarbon Exploration That are Often Overlooked: Cases of Exploration Failures in Indonesia and The Solutions

Abstract

Petroleum system analysis is a method commonly used by geoscientists to assess the possibility of an area containing petroleum. But the levels of analysis of the elements and processes of a petroleum system are often unbalanced. Some aspects are analysed in detail while others are overlooked. These overlooked aspects often turn out to carry the highest risks for exploration. The author reviewed multiple cases of exploration failures in Indonesia post-2000 and found that these failures are generally related to an overlook of some elements and processes of the petroleum system. This includes the tendency to think of seismic low as a kitchen, being too optimistic in doing basin modelling, assuming that it is sufficient if kitchens have generated hydrocarbons whereas expulsion threshold is more critical, not mapping migration pathways in detail, and not evaluating carrier beds and regional sealing. Revisiting the petroleum system analysis method, carrying out a more balanced analysis for all elements and processes of the petroleum system, and reconstructing it with the tectono-sedimentary evolution of the basin where the exploration area is located from its formation to the present day (dynamic interpretation) are the solutions offered. Hopefully these solutions can reduce exploration failures and increase success in Indonesia and other areas.