Criminal cycles in the illegal drug industry: A system dynamics approach applied to Colombia

Abstract

The coca farming dynamics seem to partially follow the patterns of a long war against organized crime in Colombian. Since the early 80s, the cocaine market in the US and the rest of the world has been mainly supplied by Colombian cartels. Consequently, these illegal organizations have been targeted by Colombian and American law enforcement agencies. Our work argues that such policy has had a counter-intuitive effect which has contributed to increases in coca farming and reductions in cocaine prices. This paper hypothesizes that such situation was the consequence of the way that drug cartels were dismantled - thus the Colombian paradox. The consequences of the war against cartels may be assessed with the support of a dynamic theoretical framework and SD. This research assesses alternative policy for dismantling drug cartels.