Estimation of the Migration Impact on COVID-19 Dynamics in Slovakia by Machine Learning: Simulation Study during Russian War in Ukraine

Abstract

COVID-19 has rapidly spread worldwide and has been a public health problem for more than two years. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine launched on February 24, 2022, brought killings and injuries to Ukrainians and affected the spread of infectious diseases. The escalation of the war led to a migration crisis. Slovakia became one of the countries that accepted a large number of refugees. The study uses machine learning to assess the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic process in Slovakia. To do this, a simulation model was built to predict new cases and deaths from COVID-19 a month before the escalation of the war and in the first month after. The high accuracy of modeling for both periods suggests that the forced migration of the Ukrainian population to Slovakia is not a decisive factor in the increase in the incidence of COVID-19 in the country.