Energy systems and COP21 Paris climate agreement targets in Germany: an integrated modeling approach

Abstract

At the 2015 Paris Climate Summit, all parties decided to limit global warming to at least 2 ° C, and preferably to 1.5 ° C in order to reduce the impact of climate change. The current policy target to reduce GHG emissions in Germany by 80–95% by 2050 stabilizes global warming at 2 ° C. For the more ambitious limitation of 1.5 ° C, these targets need to be adjusted urgently. In 2015, the share of renewable energies in primary energy consumption in Germany was just 12.6%. This paper develops four main scenarios to limit the temperature rise to 1.5 ° C. The integrated energy system model LEAP was used to estimate the energy balances and the climate mitigation targets. The results of the model suggest that GHG emission drops to 9.2 Mt of CO2e in the COP21 Paris Scenario compared to 20.3 Mt of CO2e in the Reference Scenario. In addition to the BAU and COP21 Paris Scenarios, an Energy Efficiency and a 100% Renewable Scenario are analyzed as well. On the other hand, the GHG emission mitigation costs in the COP21 Paris Scenario are 194.2 € / t of CO2e, the highest amongst all scenarios considered. The present work shows that it seems possible for Germany to achieve the Paris agreement targets if an integrated approach is applied to the country's energy sector.