Research on risk decision of shipping enterprise operation and mothball based on Bayesian theory

Abstract

In order to decrease the decision-making risk of shipping enterprises when the shipping market changes in the downturn and active condition, this paper studies the influencing factors of shipping enterprises' income from the perspective of small and medium-sized shipping enterprises, establishes a decision-making model with the maximum expected value of shipping enterprises' benefit as the goal, and makes a posterior decision via Bayesian theory. On this basis, three common schemes of shipping enterprises are analyzed. The results show that the decision-making of modifying the prior probability by the posterior information can provide the decision making with lower risk.