FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL MARKET OF TOURIST SERVICES IN THE POST-LEKORONOVIRAL PERIOD

Abstract

The article provides a general assessment of the activities of the international market of tourism services in the pre-coronavirus period and predicts the recovery of the tourism industry as a component of the economy, after overcoming the pandemic. The article offers statistical and informative material on the role of tourism in the system of world services and the international economy, compares the number of people employed in tourism by years and analyzes the foreign experience of the functioning of the tourist services market, defining the main trends in the development of tourism in the future as a segment of the world economy. It is substantiated that tourism is one of those sectors of the world economy that has suffered more from the pandemic, taking into account UNWTO monitoring, IMF data, analytical studies of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the results of the analysis of economic stability of European agencies Standard and Poor’s, Fitch and Moody’s. Scenarios of the world’s exit from the economic crisis, in which tourism plays one of the main roles, are proposed, and the consequences of the introduction of certain scenarios into their practical implementation are predicted. The chances of overcoming the crisis are assessed for Ukraine, which is lagging behind in the implementation of measures in support of the tourism sector, and poses a serious threat to the competitiveness of the industry in the international market during the forecast period of economic recovery. Attention is focused on the fact that financial reforms are being carried out in Ukraine, in which tourism accounts for a relatively small share in the country’s economy. Therefore, the recovery of the tourism segment of the country’s economy is possible under the V-shaped scenario, which will allow the tourism industry to be restored after the pandemic without significant losses. The ways of exit of Ukraine from the difficult economic situation in the tourism industry are determined and the development trends of the Ukrainian market of tourist services are predicted. Information about the strengths and weaknesses of the development of the world tourism market will help determine the most promising areas of activity in the tourism sector and predict the economic feasibility of introducing one direction or another into the public system of economic relations.