The Prediction of Gold Price Using ARIMA Model

Abstract

Although,2016 and 2017 have risen, the international gold price has been in the doldrums since 2013. The volatility of gold prices will have a profound effect on the investment decisions of individuals, enterprises and countries. This study focuses on the figure of gold prices from July 2013 to June 2018 according to the World Gold Council, and aims to forecast and analyze daily gold price of USD in the first half of the month of July 2018 through the establishment of ARIMA model. This study also uses AC, PAC, AIC, BIC to estimate the accuracy of models. Empirical outcomes demonstrate that ARIMA (3, 1, 2) is the finest model to predict the gold price of USD. The estimate outcomes of ARIMA Model are vital for people to understand the efficiency of gold prices and make great investment choices. Keywords—Forecast, gold price, ARIMA model