Forecasting the Economic Security Level of Murmansk Oblast as a Coastal Arctic Region

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of the potential impact of key factors that form long-term and medium-term scenarios of development of the coastal Arctic region on the level of economic security of the Murmansk Oblast. We highlight the specifics of implementation of medium- and long-term forecasting as a management function for the regional level. It is determined that within the framework of the forecasting of economic security it is vital not only to form a complete list of internal and external factors that determine socio-economic processes, but also to identify those factors and conditions that will have the strongest impact on the individual components of economic security. The study identifies the main groups of factors that will determine the development of the Murmansk Oblast in the medium and long term (environmental and nature-related, macroeconomic and market, technological, demographic, political, geopolitical, social).The impact of factors on the potential change in both the general fields that form the level of economic security of any subject of the Russian Federation and the specific fields that determine the economic security of coastal Arctic regions has been assessed. We established that the opportunities to increase the level of economic security of the Murmansk Oblast are connected with the increase in the region's ability to develop sustainably by improving the investment climate and development of the main sectors of the economy, as well as by improving transport infrastructure. The potential for negative demographic trends and difficulties for the largest mining companies in the region, caused by unfavorable market conditions and depletion of producing fields, determine security.