Cognitive approach to decision-making in ill-structured situation control and the problem of risks

Abstract

The basic directions of cognitive approach development in the field of formal methods of searching and making decisions in the control of complex and ill-structured situations are briefly reviewed. The problem of risks for the results validity that arise due to the human factor in the cognitive approach is considered and two kinds of risks which we can pertinently treat as cognitive risks are exposed. On the example of a real cognitive map of a complex and ill-structured situation the analysis of some cognitive risks concerned with causal influence transitivity is carried out. Some explanatory mechanisms and criteria for the early detection of such risks are proposed. The issues important for further development of the cognitive approach to decision-making in the ill-structured situation control and especially of causal mapping techniques are highlighted.