Regionalization of Russia-Belarus borderlands with demographic potential method

Abstract

This article is dedicated to the question of demographic potential surface zoning. The area of study is inter capital space between Moscow and Minsk. Three surfaces were analysed for three census years – 1897, 1989 and 2010. A method for zoning of demographic potential surface has been developed. It is based on the decomposition of the surface into separate terms. Terms are the induced potentials of settlements. It is possible to identify groups of points with a similar structure of induced potentials with the help of hierarchical cluster analysis. Such clusters will be the regions of demographic potential surface. Five types of regions were defined – spheres of dominance, zones of influence, areas of gravity, residual regions and hinterlands. There are about 20 regions on the surface of demographic potential of the inter capital region of Russia and Belarus. Its territorial structure consists of 3 large parts. The hinterlands of Moscow and Minsk are areas of the potential surface, where these cities have the largest share in the structure of the induced potential of clusters. “Real” inter capital space are areas of the potential surface, where the largest share in the structure of the induced potential of clusters belongs to any other cities, except capitals. The main processes of the evolution of demographic potential are following: expansion of the hinterlands of Moscow and Minsk, complication of the Minsk’s hinterland structure, disappearance of Roslavl’s hinterland, growth of the Gomel’s hinterland, reduction of the Bobruisk’s hinterland, formation of the residual area centered in the Polotsk agglomeration, disappearance of the residual area in the Mogilev and Bryansk regions.