Impacts of Climate Change and Population Growth on Food Security in Nigeria

Adeyinka Aroyehun
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Abstract

Food production in Nigeria has not matched with the rate of population growth leading to reduction of national food independence and self-reliance. As a result, Nigeria is facing serious food insecurity. Therefore, this study examined the impacts of climate change and population growth on food security in Nigeria. Annual time-series of food security (proxy of food production index), annual rainfall, annual temperature, population growth rate, urban population rate and agricultural land used from 1980 to 2019 were used. The study used Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, Johansen Cointegration test and Vector Error Correlation Models (VECM) were used to analyze the data. ADF unit root test result shows that all variables were completely stationary at the first different orders I(1) at both at intercept and intercept with trend at level of significance of 1%. Three (3) lags were conclusively selects as the optimum lag in the VAR model. The result of the estimation indicates that the Johansen cointegration shows an existence of long-run relationship among the variables used in the study. The result of the VECM estimation shows that rainfall, temperatures, population growth rate and agricultural land used were negatively significantly related to food security at various levels of significance (1%, 5% and 10%). At the long-run all the variables were adversely related to food security in Nigeria. The coefficient of multiple determination (R2) indicates about 91%, the adjusted R2 of 0.86 was obtained and Durbin-Watson of 2.1 was obtained which implies that the tools were good fit to estimates the data. Decomposition of variance shows dwindling in food security. The study therefore recommends public enlightenment campaign on birth control; and appropriate climate change adaptation methods should be adopted to enhance food security in Nigeria among others.
气候变化和人口增长对尼日利亚粮食安全的影响
尼日利亚的粮食生产与人口增长速度不匹配,导致国家粮食独立性和自力更生能力下降。因此,尼日利亚正面临严重的粮食不安全问题。因此,本研究考察了气候变化和人口增长对尼日利亚粮食安全的影响。采用1980 - 2019年的粮食安全(粮食生产指数的代理)、年降雨量、年气温、人口增长率、城市人口率和农业用地年度时间序列。本研究采用ADF (Augmented Dickey-Fuller)单位根检验、VAR (Vector Autoregressive)模型、Johansen协整检验和VECM (Vector Error Correlation Models)模型对数据进行分析。ADF单位根检验结果表明,在截距处和截距处,所有变量在第一阶I(1)处完全平稳,趋势在1%的显著性水平上。最后选择3个滞后作为VAR模型的最优滞后。估计结果表明,Johansen协整表明研究中使用的变量之间存在长期关系。VECM估算结果表明,降雨量、气温、人口增长率和农业用地与粮食安全在不同显著性水平(1%、5%和10%)上呈负显著相关。从长期来看,所有变量都与尼日利亚的粮食安全不利相关。多重决定系数(R2)约为91%,调整后的R2为0.86,Durbin-Watson为2.1,表明该工具对估计数据具有较好的拟合性。对方差的分解表明,粮食安全正在减少。因此,该研究建议在节育方面开展公众启蒙运动;采取适当的气候变化适应方法,加强尼日利亚的粮食安全等。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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