Future prospects for backyard skating rinks look bleak in a warming climate

Abstract

Each winter, purpose-built outdoor skating rinks are constructed in backyards and community parks across much of Canada and the northern United States. Past research projects that warmer winters will make it increasingly difficult to build outdoor rinks without artificial refrigeration. Here we build upon previous studies by mapping areas of North America where present average January temperatures are generally suitable each year for building outdoor rinks, and how this area will change by the 2050s and 2080s. Using projections from downscaled general circulation models, we show how under current emissions pathways, average January temperatures will become too mild by the 2050s to build outdoor rinks across much of eastern North America in most winters, and this area will expand by the 2080s to include most of the western United States. Under high emissions scenarios (RCP 8.5), unsuitably mild January temperatures expand to include densely populated areas of Canada's Prairie provinces by the 2080s. In short, many North Americans who build outdoor rinks every winter will, by mid-century, be living in areas where temperatures are only cold enough to do so occasionally, creating a range of social, cultural, and health implications for people living in those regions.