Application of the Real Options Method for Innovation Project Investment Evaluation

Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Economy, Judicature, Administration and Humanitarian Projects (JAHP 2019) Pub Date : 2019-09-01 DOI:10.2991/jahp-19.2019.73

E. Makarova, А. Firsova

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Innovations are regarded as one of the important sectors of the economy and investment in economically developed countries. The underdevelopment of organizationaleconomic forms and the insufficient development of mechanisms for supporting and implementing projects in innovations impede the development in this sphere. The article analyzes the different methods for calculating the value of options. The stages of decision-making support in the implementation of innovation projects that are based on real options method were analyzed. According to the results of the analysis, conclusion was made that when evaluating real innovative investments, Cox-Rubinstein’s approach is more acceptable. The binominal model allows obtaining more accurate results and presents a decision tree with variants of branching, which allows visualizing the scenarios and probabilities of these solutions. Keywords—innovation project; project investment; real options method; binomial model; project efficiency evaluation

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实物期权法在创新项目投资评价中的应用

在经济发达国家，创新被视为经济和投资的重要组成部分之一。组织经济形式不发达，支持和实施创新项目的机制不健全，阻碍了这一领域的发展。本文分析了期权价值计算的不同方法。分析了基于实物期权方法的创新项目实施决策支持的阶段。根据分析结果，得出结论，在评估真正的创新投资时，Cox-Rubinstein方法更容易被接受。二项模型可以获得更准确的结果，并提供具有分支变体的决策树，从而可以可视化这些解决方案的场景和概率。Keywords-innovation项目;项目投资;实物期权法;二项式模型;项目效率评价

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Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Economy, Judicature, Administration and Humanitarian Projects (JAHP 2019)

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