Grey prediction of China grain production with TEI@I methodology

Abstract

This paper adopts a novel methodology to predict China's grain production. Using a grey model to capture the main trend, this paper establishes a modified model of BP neural networks and then analyzes the irregular events and its influencing direction and degree with Delphi methods. By testing the validity of the final model, the result shows an encouraging conclusion that the model is effective and China's grain production will continue to increase in the next six years.