A System Dynamics Model for Public Opinion Diffusion and Response Strategy of Government Creditability Crisis Event during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

The government creditability crisis, which is characterized as an event of high sensitivity and easy-to-explosion in terms of information, can induce large-scale network public opinion and consequently impair social stability. This is especially the case during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to elucidate the rules underlying the network public opinion diffusion of COIVD-19 triggered government credibility crisis event and the corresponding countermeasures. A system dynamics model is established to formulate and simulate the interactions of four entities, that is, event per see, the netizens, the media, and the government, involved in the “Dr. Li Wenliang event” and their joint effects in the crisis evolution, shedding on the priority of influencing factors in different phases. The results indicate that the network public opinion follows the rule of "latency-outbreak-rise-fade". The sensitivity and explosiveness of the incident, the intensification of netizens, the public opinion leader effect, and the attention of the media play critical roles in network public opinion diffusion. Media's attention and netizen's intensification are the main influencing factors during the stage of public opinion explosion and waning period, respectively. The degree of government information disclosure and the early warning capability significantly alleviate the network public opinion diffusion. This study offers insight for government management in response to creditability crisis events during a special time.