Challenges, threats and risks of formation of national economic security: global and national level

Abstract

The article analyzes the modern approaches of scientists to defining the essence of such categories as “challenge”, “threat”, “risk” in the context of the national economic security formation. The author built the plane of interaction of a complex network of events in the security environment based on the relationships formed in the global environment. Global risks were analyzed from the point of view of their main characteristics (by levels of occurrence and spread, by groups, by probability of occurrence; by duration of existence; by degree of prevention and/or overcoming of negative consequences). The analysis shows that in recent years environmental risks, such as extreme weather fluctuations, environmental and natural disasters, and the risk of biodiversity loss, have become the most probable in terms of occurrence, level of impact, and difficulty to prevent. At the same time, it should be emphasized that for a long time the world community considered the most influential risks that depended directly on humanity (economic and geopolitical crises), recently, those that humanity cannot control (climate, natural elements, nature) are considered the most important. Among the significant short- and medium-term threats are also technological risks, including “digital inequality” and cybersecurity issues. At the same time, the likelihood of an aggravation of economic confrontation and internal political polarization remains, and due to the weakening of economic growth and the growth of financial inequality, the risk of economic stagnation increases. The author substantiates that the challenges, threats and risks of economic security are interconnected, mutually determining components of the national security environment, which under the conditions of all-encompassing globalization are difficult to divide by levels (global or national), they are rather complex in nature. Despite the non-local nature of the emergence of challenges, threats and risks, they cannot be considered by state governments in isolation and in many cases require close international cooperation.