{"title":"Does economic globalization trigger de‐industrialization in Western Balkan countries? Empirical evidence based on augmented mean group estimator","authors":"Orhan Cengiz , Müge Manga","doi":"10.1111/rsp3.12709","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Integration into the global economy can cause shifts in industries and decrease the industrial sector's share. Deindustrialization, which refers to declining industry share, is commonly observed in developed countries. However, many developing countries have also experienced deindustrialization without attaining a high economic level in the era of globalization. Since transitioning to a market economy and integrating with the European Union (EU), deindustrialization has become a significant issue for Western Balkan countries. Thus, our paper analyzes the impact of economic globalization on the deindustrialization process in five Western Balkan countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia by using panel data spanning 2000–2019. Our study involved the creation of two models utilizing the augmented mean group (AMG) estimation method to ensure precise results. Our research shows that in model I, the economic globalization index, economic growth, capital investment, and the rule of law positively impact industry employment share. In model II, trade openness and economic growth positively affect manufacturing value‐added; however, capital investment and the rule of law have a negative impact. Our findings indicate that economic globalization promotes industrialization in the Western Balkans instead of leading to deindustrialization. The panel causality results from Dumitrescu–Hurlin indicate that in model I, there is a one‐way causal relationship going from economic globalization and capital investment to the share of industry employment. In model II, the causal relationship goes from economic growth and the rule of law to manufacturing value‐added, from manufacturing value‐added to trade openness and capital investment.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45520,"journal":{"name":"Regional Science Policy and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1757780224001574/pdfft?md5=4b95c5b1d150b5b2dba76e30c9a27b49&pid=1-s2.0-S1757780224001574-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Regional Science Policy and Practice","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1757780224001574","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"GEOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Integration into the global economy can cause shifts in industries and decrease the industrial sector's share. Deindustrialization, which refers to declining industry share, is commonly observed in developed countries. However, many developing countries have also experienced deindustrialization without attaining a high economic level in the era of globalization. Since transitioning to a market economy and integrating with the European Union (EU), deindustrialization has become a significant issue for Western Balkan countries. Thus, our paper analyzes the impact of economic globalization on the deindustrialization process in five Western Balkan countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia by using panel data spanning 2000–2019. Our study involved the creation of two models utilizing the augmented mean group (AMG) estimation method to ensure precise results. Our research shows that in model I, the economic globalization index, economic growth, capital investment, and the rule of law positively impact industry employment share. In model II, trade openness and economic growth positively affect manufacturing value‐added; however, capital investment and the rule of law have a negative impact. Our findings indicate that economic globalization promotes industrialization in the Western Balkans instead of leading to deindustrialization. The panel causality results from Dumitrescu–Hurlin indicate that in model I, there is a one‐way causal relationship going from economic globalization and capital investment to the share of industry employment. In model II, the causal relationship goes from economic growth and the rule of law to manufacturing value‐added, from manufacturing value‐added to trade openness and capital investment.
融入全球经济会导致产业转移,降低工业部门的份额。非工业化是指工业份额下降,这在发达国家很常见。然而,许多发展中国家在全球化时代没有达到很高的经济水平,也经历了去工业化。自从向市场经济转型并融入欧盟(EU)以来,去工业化已成为西巴尔干国家面临的一个重要问题。因此,我们的论文分析了经济全球化对五个西巴尔干国家去工业化进程的影响:阿尔巴尼亚、波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那、黑山、北马其顿和塞尔维亚。我们的研究包括利用增强均值组(AMG)估计方法建立两个模型,以确保结果的精确性。我们的研究表明,在模型 I 中,经济全球化指数、经济增长、资本投资和法治对行业就业份额有积极影响。在模型 II 中,贸易开放度和经济增长对制造业增加值有正向影响;但资本投资和法治则有负向影响。我们的研究结果表明,经济全球化促进了西巴尔干地区的工业化,而不是导致去工业化。Dumitrescu-Hurlin 的面板因果关系结果表明,在模型 I 中,存在从经济全球化和资本投资到工业就业份额的单向因果关系。在模型 II 中,因果关系从经济增长和法治到制造业增加值,从制造业增加值到贸易开放和资本投资。
期刊介绍:
Regional Science Policy & Practice (RSPP) is the official policy and practitioner orientated journal of the Regional Science Association International. It is an international journal that publishes high quality papers in applied regional science that explore policy and practice issues in regional and local development. It welcomes papers from a range of academic disciplines and practitioners including planning, public policy, geography, economics and environmental science and related fields. Papers should address the interface between academic debates and policy development and application. RSPP provides an opportunity for academics and policy makers to develop a dialogue to identify and explore many of the challenges facing local and regional economies.