Methodical approaches to determine demographic security level

Abstract

Demographic problems for Ukraine, like most post-Soviet countries, are surprisingly acute. One indicator that characterizes demographic processes is the demographic security indicator, which allows us to analyze the current situation, identifying prevailing processes, conducting a retrospective analysis to determine the possible status of the demographic situation in the future. The purpose of this article is an attempt to summarize the experience of determining demographic security level, designing its indicator, implementation of demographic security level on the materials of the Ukraine’s regions. The main material. The article gives an interpretation of the concept of «demographic security», defi ning its content. Various methodological approaches to its defi nition and groups of indicators and their content are presented in a simplified form, based on open statistics, an indicator of the level of demographic security. Considering demographic security as a system of parameters of natural and mechanical movement and population structure that allows us to respond eff ectively to internal and external threats for sustainable development of society and human life, the indicator of demographic security is a convenient indicator of assessment. In our opinion, it is advisable to use the following indicators in a simplifi ed form ,based on open statistics, to determine the level of demographic security: total population growth, fertility rate, mortality rate, natural growth rate, infant mortality rate, migration balance, demographic load, population aging. The demographic security indicator allows us to analyze the current situation, identify prevailing trends, conduct a retrospective analysis of the demographic security indicators of the region to determine the possible status of the demographic situation in the future. To compare the regions of Ukraine by the level of territorial diff erentiation of demographic security, a ranking method was chosen that uses an indicator of demographic security. The results of determining the level of demographic security and grouping regions of Ukraine by this indicator according to data from 2009, 2012, 2016 are presented. Conclusions and further research. Demographic security is the reproduction of the population in all its interconnections and social characteristics, infl uenced by the ability of demographic processes to respond to changes in the external and internal security environment. It is necessary to take into account the interconnections and interdependencies of the main components and factors of demographic security in order to solve the problems of improving the reproduction of quantitative and qualitative parameters of the population of Ukraine as a whole and of individual regions in particular. Determining the level of demographic security allows us to identify and justify eff ective mechanisms for ensuring demographic security, determining ways to reduce the impact of demographic problems on the formation of human potential of the territories at all hierarchical levels.