Inflation and Financial Stability Trade-off: Role of Monetary Policy Credibility and Fiscal Cyclicality

Abstract

This paper examines the role of monetary credibility and fiscal cyclicality in generating the trade-off between inflation rates and financial stability. We systematically develop simple theoretical models to shape the rationalisation framework, which demonstrates the role of fiscal cyclicality behaviour in arousing a trade-off for the monetary policy to target low inflation rates and a stable financial system at the same time. By utilising the generalised method of moment (GMM), we find that a credible monetary policy generates a trade-off between inflation and financial stability as long as the fiscal policy is procyclical.