Study on Transportation Energy Carbon Emission Based on System Dynamics

Abstract

Transportation industry is the key industry of energy conservation and emission reduction in China. It is of great significance to study the measures of transportation carbon emission reduction. First of all, the “bottom-up” method was used to preliminarily estimate China's transport carbon emissions from 2008 to 2018. Second, on the method of combining qualitative and quantitative system dynamics, the transportation carbon emission system was divided into four subsystems, economy, transportation, energy and environment, and determined the internal structure of each subsystem and the feedback relationship between each subsystem.Then, on this basis, the system flow diagram of the transportation carbon emission system was established. Finally, based on the constructed SD model, a total of 9 scenarios were set to simulate the implementation effect of transportation emission reduction measures.The results shown that the transport and energy structure adjustment has the best emission reduction effect, followed by improving the efficiency of carbon pollution control and increasing environmental protection investment. The SD model of transportation carbon emission constructed in this paper can effectively simulate the implementation effect of different transportation carbon emission reduction policies, and has certain practical application value.