{"title":"State-ANFIS: A Generalized Regime-Switching Model for Financial Modeling","authors":"Gregor Lenhard, D. Maringer","doi":"10.1109/CIFEr52523.2022.9776208","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents an extension to the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) called State-ANFIS (S-ANFIS) that is able to model nonlinear functions by a weighted model combination. In this context one often observes several variables that determine the regime of a system. S-ANFIS distinguishes cases based on external state variables and produces a weighted output of linear models. An application of S-ANFIS to artificially generated time series data is shown and compared to its base model and other neural networks. In addition, an application to a well-known dataset, the three factor model of Fama and French to describe stock returns, is presented to underline the usefulness of the model. The work contributes to the existing regime-switching literature like smooth transition models in that it is able to utilize arbitrary many state variables.","PeriodicalId":234473,"journal":{"name":"2022 IEEE Symposium on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering and Economics (CIFEr)","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2022-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"2022 IEEE Symposium on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering and Economics (CIFEr)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1109/CIFEr52523.2022.9776208","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This paper presents an extension to the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) called State-ANFIS (S-ANFIS) that is able to model nonlinear functions by a weighted model combination. In this context one often observes several variables that determine the regime of a system. S-ANFIS distinguishes cases based on external state variables and produces a weighted output of linear models. An application of S-ANFIS to artificially generated time series data is shown and compared to its base model and other neural networks. In addition, an application to a well-known dataset, the three factor model of Fama and French to describe stock returns, is presented to underline the usefulness of the model. The work contributes to the existing regime-switching literature like smooth transition models in that it is able to utilize arbitrary many state variables.