State-ANFIS: A Generalized Regime-Switching Model for Financial Modeling

Gregor Lenhard, D. Maringer
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Abstract

This paper presents an extension to the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) called State-ANFIS (S-ANFIS) that is able to model nonlinear functions by a weighted model combination. In this context one often observes several variables that determine the regime of a system. S-ANFIS distinguishes cases based on external state variables and produces a weighted output of linear models. An application of S-ANFIS to artificially generated time series data is shown and compared to its base model and other neural networks. In addition, an application to a well-known dataset, the three factor model of Fama and French to describe stock returns, is presented to underline the usefulness of the model. The work contributes to the existing regime-switching literature like smooth transition models in that it is able to utilize arbitrary many state variables.
状态- anfis:一种用于金融建模的广义状态切换模型
本文对自适应神经模糊推理系统(ANFIS)进行了扩展,称为状态-模糊推理系统(S-ANFIS),它能够通过加权模型组合对非线性函数进行建模。在这种情况下,人们经常观察到决定系统状态的几个变量。S-ANFIS根据外部状态变量区分情况,并产生线性模型的加权输出。给出了S-ANFIS在人工生成的时间序列数据中的应用,并与其基础模型和其他神经网络进行了比较。此外,本文还将Fama和French的三因素模型应用于一个著名的数据集来描述股票收益,以强调该模型的实用性。这项工作有助于现有的状态切换文献,如平滑转移模型,因为它能够利用任意多个状态变量。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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