Little Risk of the COVID-19 Resurgence Caused by School Reopening in China (outside Hubei): A Statistical Probability Study

Abstract

School reopening has not yet completely started in China where the COVID-19 outbreak has reached the ending stage, largely due to a great concern about COVID-19 infections on students. Here we explored a step-by-step procedure to quantitatively evaluate the risk of COVID-19 infections on students from infected teachers during school reopening. Results show that the probability of COVID-19 resurgence within one week on students of primary, middle, and high schools in China (outside Hubei) is extremely low (<0.2%) in typical provinces/cities that were most affected by COVID-19 epidemics in China. In some areas without newly con fi rmed cases in the past 14 days, the risk is zero. Such a probability can be updated daily and weekly based on the newly con fi rmed cases in the past 14 days. Our work provides guidance for local governments to make risk level-based policies for school reopening.