Probabilistic Mechanics of Glass Suggests a Model for COVID-19 Epidemics

Gabriele Pisano, A. Bonati, G. Carfagni
{"title":"Probabilistic Mechanics of Glass Suggests a Model for COVID-19 Epidemics","authors":"Gabriele Pisano, A. Bonati, G. Carfagni","doi":"10.3844/sgamrsp.2022.33.47","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":": The presented statistical model allows us to identify the degree of development of an epidemic starting from the observation of the number of deaths in the invested region, categorized by the age of the victims. Recognition of which cases are associated with the disease is not necessary, as this results from the comparison with data on deaths in pre-epidemic conditions. The treatment, which has analogies with consolidated models in the stochastic mechanics of brittle materials, allows associating parameters such as the level of epidemic, the probability of developing a pathology, and the age of the victims, with other notions well-known to structural engineers, such as the stress, the dependence from fracture-mechanics of macroscopic strength on material defects, the size-effect. Strong simplifying hypotheses are made; therefore, new comparisons are needed with the actual data, often not organized and difficult to find. However, for the most populated Italian regions, the model shows a good agreement with the theoretical predictions, allowing a quantitative estimate of the epidemic level and the risk assessment based on age. Further studies will show whether the knowledge in material science may be conveniently borrowed in the field of epidemiology and viceversa, to achieve mutual interdisciplinary progress.","PeriodicalId":354536,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Structural Glass and Advanced Materials Research","volume":"998 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Structural Glass and Advanced Materials Research","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3844/sgamrsp.2022.33.47","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

: The presented statistical model allows us to identify the degree of development of an epidemic starting from the observation of the number of deaths in the invested region, categorized by the age of the victims. Recognition of which cases are associated with the disease is not necessary, as this results from the comparison with data on deaths in pre-epidemic conditions. The treatment, which has analogies with consolidated models in the stochastic mechanics of brittle materials, allows associating parameters such as the level of epidemic, the probability of developing a pathology, and the age of the victims, with other notions well-known to structural engineers, such as the stress, the dependence from fracture-mechanics of macroscopic strength on material defects, the size-effect. Strong simplifying hypotheses are made; therefore, new comparisons are needed with the actual data, often not organized and difficult to find. However, for the most populated Italian regions, the model shows a good agreement with the theoretical predictions, allowing a quantitative estimate of the epidemic level and the risk assessment based on age. Further studies will show whether the knowledge in material science may be conveniently borrowed in the field of epidemiology and viceversa, to achieve mutual interdisciplinary progress.
玻璃的概率力学提出了COVID-19流行病的模型
所提出的统计模型使我们能够从观察所投资地区按受害者年龄分类的死亡人数开始,确定流行病的发展程度。没有必要确认哪些病例与该疾病有关,因为这是与流行前情况下的死亡数据进行比较的结果。这种处理方法与脆性材料随机力学中的综合模型有相似之处,允许将诸如流行病水平、发展为病理学的可能性和受害者年龄等参数与结构工程师所熟知的其他概念(如应力、宏观强度对材料缺陷的断裂力学依赖、尺寸效应)联系起来。提出了强有力的简化假设;因此,需要与实际数据进行新的比较,而这些数据往往没有组织且难以找到。然而,对于意大利人口最多的地区,该模型显示与理论预测非常吻合,可以对流行病水平进行定量估计,并根据年龄进行风险评估。进一步的研究将表明材料科学的知识是否可以方便地在流行病学领域借鉴,反之亦然,以实现跨学科的相互进步。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术官方微信