Simulation of the January 2014 polar vortex and its impacts on interdependent electric-natural gas infrastructure

Abstract

The development of tools that appropriately simulate electric-natural gas interdependencies and their resulting propagation of disturbances within and between systems is a particular need of system operators. The need for such tools is further emphasized by the January 2014 Polar Vortex event, where the response of the electric power and natural gas systems further highlighted the importance of the coordinated assessment of interdependent systems when a large diversion of natural gas to non-electric customers created unexpected consequences in the electric sector. This paper documents ongoing modeling and assessment activities of the Argonne Electric Power-Natural Gas Integrated Model and demonstrates the estimated impacts for this historic disruptive event. This paper presents a description of the Polar Vortex event, the modeling approach and methods used, including the assumptions, data, and modeling platform, and provides simulation results showing agreement with historically reported impacts, in both spatial and quantitative terms, to validate model performance.