英国脱欧的经济影响：基于全球CGE模型分析 (The Economic Effects of Brexit: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis)

Abstract

Chinese Abstract: 利用全球可计算一般均衡模型（CGE）对“英国脱欧”的经济影响进行模拟分析。研究提出了三种政策模拟假设：“硬脱欧”、“硬脱欧”后实现自由贸易协定减少贸易壁垒，以及“软脱欧”。针对三种模拟假设场景，研究发现无论英国脱欧以何种方式实现，英国本国经济将面临显著的下行压力，对GDP增长、投资、消费需求、进出口部门以及劳动力市场都将造成严重的负面影响。关税壁垒较高的行业以及高度依赖于进出口的行业部门将面临较大冲击。相比之下，无论是短期还是长期的结果，英国脱欧对欧盟27国的整体经济的冲击则较小。 English Abstract: This paper quantifies the economic effects of Brexit based on the global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The simulation provides three “scenarios” of the policy shocks: a. hard Brexit; b. the free trade negotiation achieved after hard Brexit, and c. soft Brexit. This finding shows that the three Brexit scenarios would generate negative effects on the UK economics, including its GDP, welfare, investment, consumption, export/import and labor market. The industries that have high tariff barriers would have more serious impact. But for the EU27 countries, they would be less impacted.